WASHINGTON — The votes are still being counted in this year’s congressional election – the outcome of three House races is unresolved – but the 2008 presidential campaign is already under way.
It is shaping up to be “the biggest, baddest, meanest and, quite possibly, the most historic race for the White House in a generation,” Craig Crawford, a political analyst for MSNBC cable TV news and Congressional Quarterly, wrote in CQ magazine.
Why? As consequential as this month’s congressional election was, the true direction of the country will likely not be determined until America chooses a new president.
The 2006 election has dramatically altered the landscape for the 2008 White House campaign. It turned over control of Congress to the Democrats for the first time in 12 years, leading Republicans to reassess — beyond the Iraq war — whether the party’s conservative principles or flawed candidates were most responsible for the loss.
Conservative Sen. George Allen of Virginia, once regarded as a leading candidate for the GOP nomination in 2008, lost his bid for re-election this month. On the other hand, the more moderate Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts has seen his popularity rise in the weeks since the congressional midterm election.
Right now, there are at least 25 people who experts see as the most probable presidential contenders over the next two years, those most having the ability and vision to lead the country in a new direction, to redefine America’s role in the world as well as the proper role of government in the lives of their fellow citizens.
“The 2008 campaign may well be the defining election of this generation,” said John Zogby, founder of the Zogby International polling firm. “Both the path to Iraq and the failures of post-Katrina suggest that the current system of federalism may be in need of a major redefinition, similar to the periods that gave rise to the Progressive Era, the New Deal, the Great Society and the Reagan Republican Revolution.”
In Zogby’s view, one shared by many other analysts, the 2008 presidential campaign is “about much more than personalities.”
Even so, the emerging field of possible candidates for president has no shortage of personalities. “I don’t think there’s ever been a campaign with so many larger-than-life characters,” said Democratic strategist James Carville, a larger-than-life character himself who worked for another: former President Bill Clinton.
The Republican field could include such well-known figures as Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. On the Democratic side, there could be Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, former Vice President Al Gore, who was the 2000 nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 nominee, and the latest political phenomenon, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.
Other Republicans who have either taken steps to run or are considering a bid include Romney, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, Gov. George Pataki of New York, Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin.
As for the rest of the Democratic field, most experts expect campaigns from Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, former NATO commander Wesley Clark, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa.
Gore has said he is not interested in running again, but revenge-minded Democratic activists continue to promote him. Likewise, Republicans are fascinated with the idea of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the national GOP ticket, even though she has said no.
Public opinion polls show McCain and Giuliani as the neck-and-neck frontrunners in the GOP contest and Hillary Clinton as the clear early leader in the Democratic campaign.
Still, it is a wide open race. Not since 1928 has there been a White House campaign in which neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president will be running for their party’s nomination. President Bush is limited to two terms and Vice President Cheney has foresworn any interest in succeeding Bush.
For Republicans, “2008 is about one word: victory,” said Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster who helped fashion the “Contract With America” for the GOP in 1994. “Electability always matters, but after 2006, it’s more important than ever,” he added.
For Democrats, “2008 will answer the question: was 2006 a real tipping point?” said Peter Brown, a political analyst and assistant director for the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, “or was Karl Rove right, and 2006 was just a bad year for the Republican Party?”
Rove, the mastermind of Bush’s two presidential campaigns, has maintained that America remains a conservative country and that the GOP losses in the 2006 were due to the external factors of the war in Iraq and the corruption of some Republican members of Congress.
But Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said 2006 represented “the meltdown” of Rove’s “divide and conquer” approach to politics. The voters in 2006 “did not rush to identify with Democrats or liberals,” Greenberg conceded, but they also determined that the Republicans “were unable to advance the public interest of the needs of a struggling middle class.” The 2008 election will be about whether the Democrats delivered on their pledge to take the country in “a new direction” or blew the opportunity “to make the sale” to the American voters, he added.
Here is a thumbnail sketch of those most often mentioned as possible candidates for president in 2008:
REPUBLICANS
- Sam Brownback, 50 – A two-term senator from Kansas and a favorite of evangelical Christians for his opposition to abortion and stem cell research.
- Bill Frist, 54 – A transplant surgeon from Tennessee, got controversial Bush judges confirmed but also got the Senate embroiled in the Terri Schiavo controversy.
- Newt Gingrich, 63 – A former House Speaker, from Georgia, the public face of the GOP during Bill Clinton’s presidency.
- Rudolph Giuliani, 62 – The former mayor of New York, defined by his management of the city’s response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
- Chuck Hagel, 50 – A two-term moderate senator from Nebraska, one of the first Republicans to question the president’s management of the war in Iraq.
- Mike Huckabee, 51 – Governor of Arkansas since 1996, a leading health advocate, his own health problems and loss of 110 pounds attracted national attention.
- Duncan Hunter, 58 – A member of the House since 1981, from California, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and strong opponent to removing U.S. troops from Iraq.
-John McCain, 70 – Four-term senator from Arizona, a national figure since Vietnam War heroics, unsuccessfully ran for Republican presidential nomination in 2000.
- George Pataki, 61 – Three-term tax-cutting governor of New York, the longest serving of all current governors, thrust into the national spotlight following the Sept. 11 attacks.
- Condoleezza Rice, 52 – A favorite of the Bush family, a stalwart of the Bush war on terrorism, currently serving as a Secretary of State.
- Mitt Romney, 59 – One-term governor of Massachusetts, his crowning achievement was legislation providing health care to virtually all citizens of his state.
- Tom Tancredo, 60 – Four-term congressman from Colorado, the leading voice for building a fence along the U.S.-Mexican border to stop illegal immigration.
- Tommy Thompson, 65 – Elected four times as governor of Wisconsin, promoted welfare reform and school choice, served as Secretary of Health and Human Services in Bush’s first term.
DEMOCRATS
- Evan Bayh, 50 – Two-term senator from Indiana, served two terms as governor, a dedicated political centrist and former chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council.
- Joe Biden, 64 – A six-term senator from Delaware, next chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, leading Democratic voice on national security and foreign policy issues.
- Wesley Clark, 61 – Former Supreme Commander of NATO, ran unsuccessfully for Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, campaigned for Democratic congressional candidates in 2006.
- Hillary Clinton, 59 – Former first lady, re-elected to second term in the U.S. Senate from New York, the Democratic frontrunner but criticized by liberals for Iraq war vote.
- Tom Daschle, 48 – The former Senate Majority Leader, lost his seat in 2004, currently a visiting professor at Georgetown University and a fellow at the Center for American Progress.
- Chris Dodd, 62 – A five-term senator from Connecticut, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a popular speaker and true-blue liberal.
- John Edwards, 53 – Former senator from North Carolina, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2004, heads an anti-poverty center in his home state, traveled extensively for candidates in 2006.
- Al Gore, 58 – The former vice president and 2000 presidential nominee, starred this year in the critically acclaimed documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” about global warming.
- John Kerry, 62 – The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, criticized this fall for a fumbled joke about Bush that was taken as criticism of American troops in Iraq.
- Barack Obama, 45 – Freshman senator from Illinois, publication of his book “The Audacity of Hope” this fall helped make him a media superstar and asset in the 2006 congressional campaigns.
- Bill Richardson, 59 – The Hispanic governor of New Mexico, served as U.N. ambassador and secretary of energy during the Clinton administration.
- Tom Vilsack, 55 – The two-term centrist governor of Iowa, built a record of education reform and job creation, currently serves as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council.
